UFFICIALE: Ciao, Massimo

It has finally come to pass. After months of rumors, arguing, haggling, and general uproar, Massimo Oddo will don the black and red stripes. The deal was finally struck on Monday night between Lotito and Galliani. The final terms were €7.75M and the full contract of Pasquale Foggia, a compromise that leans just slightly closer to Lazio's high demands than towards Milan's initial offer. Now that it's done, the only controversy remaining is whether it was a good deal. There is no clear answer, and every party to this transaction will discover both pros and cons. A breakdown of just what everyone will get out of it:

Claudio Lotito: €€€€€€
The whole affair was strictly a business deal for the Lazio president. His demands which inched ever higher showed that he was out to milk the transfer for as much cash as Milan could muster. Lotito also knew that it would be very difficult to resign Massimo when his contract was set to expire at the end of next season. Oddo would likely have left on a free transfer, with no monetary benefit to the club. Thus the tradeoff is simple: sacrifice a year-and-a-half of play from the country's best right back for nearly €8M. Oh, plus the full contract of Pasquale Foggia. What of that? As I'll explain later, he is (unfortunately for him!) probably just a pawn in the whole affair.

Delio Rossi: a puzzle
How will Oddo's absence, not to mention the addition of Jimenez from Ternana last week, change the first team lineup that has been working fairly well for Rossi? The match against Milan was an experiment, putting Behrami in the right back spot. I think this will be his permanent spot. Belleri is not up to snuff, and when Jimenez plays he will take up one of the midfield spots that Behrami would occupy otherwise. Delio is a good tactician and will be able to resolve this for certain over the next couple weeks both on the training pitch at Formello and with inevitable experiments in actual matches.

Oddo himself: Europe...for now
The first question regarding Oddo is what sort of playing time he will receive. Cafu has been starting at right back for the rossoneri, and while Massimo is certainly of higher class, the Brazilian cannot be completely benched. It will be interesting to see whether Oddo is considered as a first-half or second-half player in his first few matches. In terms of higher-level competition, Massimo gets his wishes for the moment. Milan is still in Champions League and he will probably see at least some playing time in those matches. Tutto Mercato Web reports that Oddo may see other tournament play even before the next Serie A fixture, when Milan takes on good old Roma Merda this Thursday. But these opportunities could be fleeting. Losses to Celtic or Roma are certainly possible. Then he would have to be looking toward next year. The strange fact, due to the nature of the final Calciopoli punishments, is that Lazio is in slightly better position to reach Champions League for next year (even though they just lost the 4th spot to Empoli this past Sunday). We will have to wait until next season, when everyone (hopefully) starts on level footing to see if this decision was sound.

Pasquale Foggia: uncertainty
Oh boy. I'm sure Pasquale was thrilled to hear that this deal went through. In one respect, it certainly is an ego boost, because it indicates that the rights to his contract is a valuable commodity (up to €10M by some estimations). However, practically, it means that he is just an object to be bought and sold. Foggia has seen extremely little time playing at Lazio (366 minutes over 11 appearances and only 3 starts, which occurred when the midfield was decimated by injuries and suspensions). With the addition of Jimenez, the likelihood that he will take the pitch has only diminished. It's not surprising that Lotito has announced that he will use the remainder of the mercato period to try to loan or sell Foggia. This is of little or no consequence to the performance of the club, and serves merely to increase the cash flow value of the deal. Ci scusi, Pasquale.

Table-Turning II: Everybody Escapes

A quick followup to last week's "Turning the Tables" look at the classifica and the Calciopoli punishments. This is only slightly outdated, because it does not take into account the two anticipo matches which have actually taken place today. So pretend it was sometime last week.

Here's the exercise: predict the year-end classisfica based upon the figures at the halfway point. Usually this would be a pointless exercise: if you just double each team's points, they will remain in the exact same order. Not so when penalties are taken into consideration. The penalized squads will not wind up with twice their midseason points, but rather twice their midseason earned points minus their penalty. What does this reveal? It shows that every penalized team is far outpacing their punishments, and that everyone—even apparently struggling Reggina—should escape relegation. Lazio, Fiorentina, and Milan should all finish in spots that qualify them for Europe. Don't believe it? Here are the numbers:

After giro andata
Inter	51
Roma	42
Palermo	38
Lazio	26
Catania	26
Empoli	25
Sampdoria	24
Atalanta	24
Milan	23
Udinese	23
Torino	22
Livorno	22
Siena	21
Fiorentina	19
Cagliari	19
Chievo	17
Messina	16
Reggina	12
Parma	12
Ascoli	9

Proj. after giro ritorno
Inter	102
Roma	84
Palermo	76
Lazio	55
Catania*	55
Milan	54
Fiorentina	53
Empoli*	53
Atalanta	48
Sampdoria	48
Udinese	46
Livorno	44
Torino	44
Siena	43
Cagliari	38
Reggina	35
Chievo	34
Messina	32
Parma	24
Ascoli	18

*Catania and Empoli have each been given a 3-point benefit of the doubt, since they are one match behind.

So, here are the (possible) results. Lazio will see the least positive change in the second half, which is logical, because their penalty was smallest, but they should be able to maintain the fourth spot and earn a Champions League qualifying spot. Fiorentina and Milan should be able to push up into UEFA Cup, and Reggina—who looked nearly out of it at one point—should escape relegation. Meanwhile, over in Serie B, Juve is well poised to make it back into Serie A.

So what did Calciopoli accomplish? Nothing. But we all knew that.

more review/preview

Sorry about the complete absence of posts during the week. I've been sick and had a decent load of schoolwork to keep me away from blogging. First on the agenda: the matches.

Lazio 1-1 Siena: Sbagliato


Lazio cracked late in the second half, allowing Siena to pull back even and nearly win at the Olimpico last Sunday. After Rocchi just barely got enough of a header on the ball to put Lazio in the lead, play was still going Lazio's way. Then came a critical turning point. Christian Manfredini had just been put in the match when this transpired:

Cross rasoterra di Makinwa per Manfredini, che tutto solo a tu per tu con Manninger sbaglia la facile deviazione in gol

"Low cross by Makinwa for Manfredini, who was completely by himself, one-on-one with Manninger, but he botched an easy redirect into the goal"

From that point, Siena realized that Lazio didn't have the means to put away the game. They pushed forward for the next fifteen minutes. Their offensive onslaught was too much. The biancocelesti turned away many chances, but couldn't stop them all. Siena earned one too many corners, whic Francesco Cozza was able to head past Angelo Peruzzi. That wasn't the end of Siena's attack. They went for all three points, and during recupero Mario Frick hit the post with a rocketing shot. Lazio were lucky to scrape by with a single point, after such a promising start.

Preview: Lazio - Milan

Lazio (26 pts, 4th place)
vs.
Milan (23 pts, 9th place)
20:30 CET / 2:30 PM EDT
Sunday, 21 January
Stadio Olimpico, Roma

US TV: FSC (live)

Lazio begins the giro ritorno much as they began the first half of the season. This time they will play a tough match against AC Milan at home. Their previous meeting went in favor of the rossoneri by a score of 2-1.

Except for the change of location, this match has a very similar feeling to that which surrounded their September tie. Transfer rumors regarding Massimo Oddo still abound. Claudio Lotito has again rejected Milan's latest overtures, so nothing is final. Nonetheless Gazzetta feels comfortable running headlines like "Oddo andrà via dopo Lazio-Milan." Then on Saturday came the most grievous omen: Delio Rossi has chosen to not call up Oddo for the match against Milan. This portends something greater is going on than was in the fall, since on matchday 1 Massimo started in his usual position, despite issues of the mercato.

So, Massimo Oddo may spend his last Sunday at Lazio not even wearing the maglia biancoceleste. How sad and anticlimactic. Naturally we have to wait for the magic word—UFFICIALE—next week. Until then, the rest of the squad, under the leadership of Zauri, must look past this and focus on the game. Christian Ledesma has said that if Lazio plays with the same kind of intensity that they did in the derby, they will succeed. That is certainly possible, considering Milan's latest struggles. They have not fared as well as they would like in Serie A, and despite reaching the semifinal of the Coppa Italia earlier this week, they did so only after a combined A/B squad lost 1-0 (and nearly 2-0) to Serie B bottomfeeders Arezzo.

In short, Lazio has the skills to beat Milan, especially at the Olimpico. The question is whether they will be mentally tough enough.

Probable formation:

Peruzzi
Berahmi-Siviglia-Cribari-Zauri
Mudingayi-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Mauri
Rocchi-Pandev

Prediction: Lazio 1-1 Milan. But a 2-1 win if only we can keep our cool.

Review/Preview Saturday

I've been covering some other news the past couple days and haven't got around to Lazio's midweek Dubai Cup final against Benfica, nor their upcoming Serie A match against Siena. Here's the rundown:

Lazio (4) 0-0 (5) Benfica

Lazio took on Benfica in a battle of Eagles for the US$1M prize reserved for the winner of the inaugural Dubai Cup. The clubs came in quite evenly matched: Benfica had just recently dropped on the group-stage parachute from Champions League to the UEFA Cup, while Lazio are currently sitting in a UEFA Cup qualification spot in the Serie A classifica but are eyeing the fourth position.

Somewhat surprisingly, Delio Rossi started an experimental lineup at the front half. His main purpose was obviously to rest Stefano Mauri and Goran Pandev in preparation for Sunday's match against Siena. Massimo Oddo and Angelo Peruzzi started, as expected, since they did not participate in the first round match two days earlier.

Peruzzi
Oddo-Stendardo-Cribari-Zauri
Behrami-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Quadri
Rocchi-Foggia

While the front three weren't able to generate much of anything exciting, neither were Benfica's forwards. The match was characterized by half-chances back and forth and a lot of stagnation in the midfield. Lazio's first team defense held well and did not let the Portuguese break through.


At the start of the second half, Rossi naturally made some changes, but they could have been the difference in the match. Most notably, Peruzzi left after just 45 minutes in goal, replaced by Ballotta. Despite his 42 years, Marco Ballotta is excellent in goal during regulation. But the time drew on and there was still no score. The tournament format was to resolve ties by going directly to penalty kicks (extra time was omitted to save players' strength, an appropriate consideration for a mid-season tourney).

But Lazio was crippled going into a shootout. Oddo, the usual rigorista, was sent off in the 90th minute after making a foolish late challenge. Ballotta was left between the pipes to stare down five shooters. The task didn't seem insurmountable after Lazio got some help from poor shots. A save by José Moreira was countered by a Benfica shot that missed the frame completely; then, in the fifth round, following a crucial Lazio miss, Benfica had a single shot to end the match but it hit the crossbar. Extra kicks were required. Both sides struck in the sixth round, and in the seventh round Delio Rossi sent Ballotta to the spot to control his own fate. His weak shot was turned aside by Moreira and the match was on the line again. Pedro Moreira slotted the ball home past Ballotta (who failed to save a single shot; the only Benfica misses were off target) to clinch the championship. Lazio finished in second place, taking home a prize of $650,000.

Preview: Lazio - Siena

Lazio (25 pts, 5th place)
vs.
Siena (20 pts, 13th place)
20:30 CET / 2:30 PM EST
Sunday, 14 January
Stadio Olimpico, Roma

US TV: FSC (live)

Lazio both ends the first half and begins the second half of the season home at the Olimpico against the bianconeri of Siena. They are the only squad that Lazio has not faced yet this season, as the giro andata draws to a close. Lazio is also coming off of the winter break and their Dubai Cup second-place finish. Siena's only activity over the break were friendlies with low-level Italian teams. If the competition against top-level European squads hasn't tired out Lazio, they should have the edge. However, Siena will do their best to stop their 9-game winless slide that has seen them fall all the way from 4th place in the classifica to their current position. If the biancocelesti can come out and strike in the first half, they should be able to cruise the remainder of the match, cheered on by the Olimpico crowd.

As for the formation, Delio Rossi only has one remaining decision to make (according to Gazzetta), whether to start Mudingayi or Behrami on the right wing. The decision is probably not of much consequence and each of them will play one half. I favor Behrami in a standard first-team lineup, missing only Siviglia (out due to his red card against Parma):

Peruzzi
Oddo-Cribari-Stendardo-Zauri
Behrami-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Mauri
Rocchi-Pandev

Prediction: 3-0 Lazio, a strong start to kick off the new year in Serie A.

Galliani says still no agreement

After his morning meeting with Claudio Lotito, Adriano Galliani gave an online interview with Gazzetta.it, answering questions from viewers. Naturally one of the subjects discussed was the ongoing negotiations over the transfer of Massimo Oddo. Here is what Galliani had to say:

Ho avuto un incontro in mattinata con Claudio Lotito; non abbiamo trovato un accordo, perché il gap economico tra domanda e offerta resta alto, anche se di cifre non ne faccio. Comunque continueremo a trattare per quello che consideriamo il nostro unico obiettivo per il mercato di gennaio. Oddo in questo momento lo darei al 50% e se non dovesse venire acquisiremo un terzino destro a luglio.

"I had a meeting in the morning with Claudio Lotito; we haven't reached an agreement, because the price difference between the request and the offer remains large, and I am not making more offers. Regardless we will continue to negotiate for what we consider our single objective for the January trading period. At this time Oddo could give us 50% and if he won't come we will acquire a right back in June."

Not too much of a surprise. Lotito is standing firm, but Milan still has 19 days to wear him down.

Francesco Totti: Mr. Indecision

Francesco Totti does his best to endear himself to the Italian people yet again:

I tifosi vogliono sapere quando tornerò in azzurro, ma prima bisogna vedere se.... Tra me e Donadoni non c'è stato niente di particolare, ma non so ancora se tornerò in Nazionale. La finale di Berlino potrebbe essere stata la mia ultima partita con l'Italia.

"The fans want to know when I will return to the national team, but first I need to see.... Between me and Donadoni there are no specifics, but I don't know whether I will return again to the national team. The [world cup] final in Berlin could have been my last match with Italy."

Enough with this. Play or don't. If I were in Donadoni's postion, I would call him up for the next Euro 2008 qualifiers, and if he doesn't show, that's the end for him. All of the other stars, not only in Italy but throughout Europe and the world, perform their duty to their national teams with pride and without complaint. Only the most extenuating (and therefore temporary) circumstances earn players reprieve from NT duty. Of course, all players have the right to retire from their respective national teams. But when you're done, you're done. Totti had better be done.

Lotito vs. Galliani

Massimo Oddo is not for sale. But apparently his status is open to negotiation. Lazio president Claudio Lotito has agreed to meet with Adriano Galliani, vice president of AC Milan. The topic of the encounter is, of course, the rights to the contract of Oddo. The prompt for the meeting is the fact that Lotito is doing everything he can to be frustrating to Milan. He had previously rejected an initial offer of €6M plus the contract of Pasquale Foggia. Lotito demanded slighly more, countering with a figure of €7.5M and Foggia.

Milan considered the proposition and decided that yes, they could scrounge up the extra €1.5M (from Berlusconi's pockets, if nowhere else). I'm sure Milan was quite pleased when they returned to Lazio, prepared to pay the sum that would allow the Azzurri right back to travel north and wear the maglia rossonera. The Milan management must have been rightfully shocked when Lotito refused the sum that he himself had previously set, now demanding an additional €1.5M, for a total of €9M plus Foggia for the rights to Massimo. It was obvious that a face-to-face meeting would be necessary. The results of those negotiations are yet pending, but I can only presume that in the end, Lotito will still be asking for just a bit more for his world-class defender.

Dubai Cup midterm report

Lazio 3-1 Olympique Marseille

Although weak on defense, a strong offensive push lifted Lazio over Marseille to advance to the final of the Dubai Cup against Portuguese side Benfica on Wednesday. The game started on rather even terms, but Lazio was able to pull ahead after applying pressure and earning a corner kick. The cross was misplayed by the Marseille keeper and fell right at the feet of Stefano Mauri, who buried the ball in the back of the net to put Lazio in the lead.

Lazio's only miscue of the match allowed Marseille to level at 1-1, when midfielder Samir Nasri lofted a free kick from about 40 meters out on the far sideline over the entire defense and Marco Ballotta. Play proceeded equally until the end of the first half, with both sides finding a few chances. Marseille was generally able to control the midfield, driven by the play of Franck Ribéry.


The second half brought lineup changes and subsequent differences in the gameplay. Ribéry exited after the intermission, and Marseille's midfield abilities collapsed. Lazio was able to pass the ball much more freely in the center of the pitch and generate chances toward the front. Zauri moved to the right back position after Behrami (who was playing out of his normal spot to fill in for the missing Oddo) also went to the bench at the break. Zauri showed his versatility and kept play moving from the back. Cribari, Stendardo, and later Siviglia held nicely in the back row and supported Marco Ballotta, who didn't seem to be fielding the ball cleanly but gave up no critical rebounds.

Midway through the second half Delio Rossi pulled Pandev and Rocchi and Stephen Makinwa took the pitch. Within a minute of his entry he was running free down the left center. He nearly mishandled the ball, but was able to regain control for a shot. His odd timing actually fooled the keeper and allowed him to slot the ball home. The biancocelesti continued to look for a clinching goal, and the defense of l'OM crumbled, blatantly fouling Pasquale Foggia in the box. A penalty was rewarded as Foggia writhed on the pitch (selling the foul quite well, even though he didn't need to). The only question was who would take it? Oddo didn't start, the two strikers were already benched...perhaps Mauri would go to the spot. No, Foggia himself rose from the turf and angled the ball home for the decisive win.

In the final moments of the game, Massimo Mutarelli fouled a Marseille player, who tripped in the path of Siviglia. Sebastiano lost his footing and fell knees-first on the downed man, and drew a red card. It was an unfortunate sequence of events, but it did not hurt Lazio at the time and shouldn't have too large of an effect on the final.

Final Preview

Lazio (5th place, Serie A)
vs.
Benfica (3rd place, Bwin LIGA)
20:45 local / 17:45 CET / 11:45 AM EST
Wednesday, 10 January
Al Ahli Club Stadium, Dubai, UAE

US TV: GolTV (live)

Lazio will attempt to be crowned champions of the inaugural Dubai Cup on Wednesday as they face Portuguese side Benfica in a battle of Eagles. As Águias are tournament-tested, having just recently participated in the group stage of Champions League and falling short in a tough group which saw Manchester United and Celtic advance. Lazio will be reinforced with its full squad, as Oddo and Peruzzi will have arrived from their ceremonial national team duties in Italy. Lazio must play its own brand of football to prevail in this matchup, staying strong at the rear and running quickly down the wings to generate opportunities. Benfica weathered a 0-0 tie with Bayern Munich in their first game and went to penalty kicks to settle the match, so they will be slightly less fresh. It also shows that if Lazio can crack the Benfica defense they may be able to hold out for a low-scoring win.

We can expect a more regular first team line up for Lazio:

Peruzzi
Oddo-Stendardo-Cribari-Zauri
Behrami-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Mauri
Rocchi-Pandev

Prediction: 1-0 Lazio, or perhaps a draw that leads to a crapshoot from the penalty spot.

Dubai Cup Preview

Background
In December, Lazio was invited to participate in the first Mohammed bin Rashid International Football Championship (usually called the Dubai Cup, because the full name is such a mouthful). This is an excellent way for Lazio to spend the tail end of its winter break. The format for the Cup is a four-team bracketed tournament with the first round winners playing for the championship and the first round losers playing for third place.

The three other teams invited to the Cup were Benfica (Portuguese Liga), Bayern Munich (German Bundesliga), and Santos FC (Brasilian Série A). Santos dropped out of the Cup in late December and was replaced with French Ligue 1 squad Olympique de Marseille. Lazio was originally drawn against Santos, so they will now play Marseille.

The Dubai Cup is intended as a showcase of international talent, and it is an honor for Lazio to participate. The two clubs drawn in the other first round match, Bayern and Benfica, both qualified for the ongoing Champions League (Bayern advanced to the knockout round, while Benfica dropped to UEFA Cup from the group stage). Marseille is no slouch club, earning 5th place in Ligue 1 last season, even though that only qualified them for the Intertoto Cup. While not only a fabulous chance to play other high-level squads, participation in the Dubai Cup is also a financial windfall. All clubs participating receive a minimum €500,000, and the winner will net €1.3 million.

Match Preview: Lazio - Marseille

Lazio (5th place, Serie A)
vs.
Marseille (6th place, Ligue 1)
17:45 local / 14:45 CET / 8:45 AM EST
Monday, 9 January
Al Ahli Club Stadium, Dubai, UAE

US TV: GolTV (delayed broadcast at 1:45 PM EST)

Lazio have departed for the UAE without their two Azzurri stars, Massimo Oddo and Angelo Peruzzi. They will have to remain in Italy for the official award ceremony for the campioni del mondo, but will be flying to Dubai for the second round game (the Cup contract includes a clause to make sure that the teams play their first squads and star international players; Lazio is in effect gaining an exemption for these two). Thus the biancocelesti will start the tournament slightly depleted in the defense, which could hurt their chances of playing for the first place prize.

The main challenge for Lazio, as it has been all season in Serie A, will be over control of the midfield. Marseille boast French national team midfielder Frank Ribéry. Collapses at midfield could be disastrous for an Oddo-less defense, so Lazio will have to be very careful to keep the ball moving toward the offensive end, not only to create their own chances but to prevent chances for Marseille.

Projected formation:

Ballotta
Belleri-Siviglia-Stendardo-Zauri
Mudingayi-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Mauri
Rocchi-Pandev

Prediction: Hard to say, since I know so little about Marseille...but it could easily go to extra time.

Turning the Tables

The Serie A season isn't quite half over (the giro andata will finish on the 19th matchday, next weekend; usually that would happen before the winter break, but this year it was pushed back until after the holidays due to the Calciopoli appeals). So this is a good time to look back and see what has happened and what could have happened to the Serie A table.

If you remember when the arbitration results came in and Lazio received a big 8-point boost, Gazzetta published tables of how the classifica changed with the various alterations to the penalties to Juve, Milan, Lazio, Fiorentina, and Reggina. How would those be holding up now, eighteen matches into the season? It's not very useful to examine the original primo grado penalties, because those put Juve, Fiorentina, and Lazio all in Serie B and can't be drawn upon for accurate comparison.

After appeals
Pen	Team	Place	Qualification
-8	Milan	12th
-11	Lazio	13th
-19	Fiorentina	17th
-15	Reggina	20th	relegation
B -17	Juve	B 11th

After arbitration (current classifica)
Pen	Team	Place	Qualification
-3	Lazio	5th	UEFA Cup
-8	Milan	13th
-15	Fiorentina	14th
-11	Reggina	19th	relegation
B -9	Juve	B 3rd	promotion playoff

With no penalty
Team	Place	Qualification
Fiorentina	4th	Champions Qual.
Milan	5th	UEFA Cup
Lazio	6th	UEFA Cup
Reggina	8th
Juve	in A	?

It's pretty obvious to see that Lazio benefited the most from the final, reduced penalties. Fiorentina is slightly better off than after the initial appeals, seeing as they now have a six-point buffer between their 14th spot and the relegation zone. Looking at a table with no penalties factored in, you can see that Lazio is playing essentially on a level with Viola and Milan. This is good news for this season, as it means that they will not catch Lazio, but is also good news for the future because it is a sign of the biancocelesti's ability to run with the top teams in Serie A.

Just a final note on Juventus, the wild card in this scenario. It's impossible to know how they would be faring in Serie A this season, especially since the demotion to B prompted a lot of changes to their roster. But this is nearly certain: Juve will at least have a chance to move back up to A next year. They sit one point out of a tie for the lead in Serie B and are tied with three other teams that are currently in the promotion playoff zone. While it looks like there will be fierce competition for those 3rd through 6th spots that earn a playoff spot, Juve will probably not have to scrap for one of those positions. They have already made up a 9 point penalty (by keeping an undefeated record), so they are earning points at a rate greater than Napoli, Genoa, and Bologna, with whom they are currently tied.

The implications? Lazio will have a serious chance for Champions League qualifying this year, and should be able to secure a UEFA Cup spot. Next year will be the real test, when Juve, Roma merda, Inter, Milan, Lazio, and Fiorentina are all gunning for the top spots. The biancocelesti still have to take it game by game this season. Next up: Siena.

Oddo Update

The latest sound bite in the Great Oddo Saga comes from Delio Rossi, and he's not happy:

Capisco il ragazzo arriva una grande squadra e ti fa una bella offerta, ma non può essere un giocatore a dire: è arrivata un'offerta importante per me. ... Sono due o tre anni che Oddo convive con il fatto di essere uomo mercato ma ha dimostrato di pensare in campo solo alla Lazio. Al punto che è il nostro capitano.

"I understand him--a great team and comes and makes you a good offer, but it can't be the player who says, 'An important offer has arrived for me.' ... It's been two or three years that Oddo has played with the notion that he is a man on the market but on the field he has shown that he thinks only about Lazio. For that reason he is our captain."

There won't be any repercussions for these statements, since Rossi is most concerned with how his players perform on the field, and he defends Massimo in that respect. Delio just wishes the whole affair was treated with a little more class. These are the same statements that get some Laziali angry at Oddo and draw a contrast between him and Paolo di Canio, who favored to drop to Serie C2 for the end of his career if Lotito wouldn't resign him. Oddo is younger and perhaps a little more greedy, but he is still a fine player and Rossi and all Laziali want him to stay for that reason.

Update to the update:
Another character has come onto the scene in the Oddo drama—Massimo's wife, Claudia. She seems to have made up her mind, and from this quote she sounds like the kind of woman who gets her way.

Oddo resta a Roma. Credo che alla fine mio marito restera' alla Lazio. Pensiamo ad un altro figlio e a Roma stiamo proprio bene.

"Oddo will stay in Rome. I believe that in the end my husband will stay at Lazio. We are thinking about having another child and we will do well to stay in Rome."

The €1.5M Question

A timeline of the Oddo situation, to the present:

19 December: The Offer
Milan makes its first foray, looking ahead to the January transfer window. They want Oddo and they have an offer for Lazio: €6M and Pasquale Foggia's contract. Foggia is currently on loan from Milan through the end of the season, but has seen little playing time and only started when the midfield was depleted by suspensions and injuries. Additionally, since Delio Rossi has converted to the 4-3-1-2 model, Foggia's role as an attacking midfielder has been even further diminished. Naturally, Claudio Lotito was initially not impressed and is even reported to say that he wouldn't part with Oddo for anything less than €20M cash.

23 December: Rossi says he'll stay

Mi auguro di no perche' Massimo Oddo e' un giocatore importante di questa squadra, ma io sono certo che Oddo resterà alla Lazio.

"I predict 'no' [that Oddo will leave] because Massimo Oddo is an important player for this team, and I am certain that Oddo will stay with Lazio."

A bold statement to be sure, but certainly reassuring for Laziali! While Rossi in no way has the final say over the transaction (that is solely up to Oddo and Lotito in the end) he has the most daily contact with Oddo and his word is credible. And it was further corroborated just later that same day...

23 December: Lotito says he's not for sale

Oddo è il terzino della Nazionale, è un campione del mondo e la migliore ala destra: oggi è un capitale, oltre che il capitano, della Lazio. Oddo non è mai stato messo in vendita anche se è vero che noi non teniamo nessuno con le catene.

"Oddo is the [right] back of the National team, he is a world champion and the best right wing: currently he is an asset to Lazio beyond the fact that he is captain. Oddo was never put up for sale even though it's true that we don't hold anybody in chains."

In one respect this is very good news and is consistent with Lotito's statements during the summer trade window. Lotito is not trying to sell Oddo or bargain with his contract. There is only one way that Oddo could leave. 1. Oddo actively wants to depart. 2. The price is right. Point 1 has always been in at least some doubt, and point 2 is clearly false...

27 December: The offer isn't enough
Let the haggling begin. The counter offer comes: €7.5M plus Foggia, in other words an additional €1.5M over Milan's inital figure. According to Tutto Mercato Web, Milan values Foggia's contract at between 3 and 4 million euro. Lotito obviously values him at less, and wants the extra cash for the deal. By either's reckoning the price for Oddo should be somewhere between 9 and 10 million euro in cash and contracts combined.

28 December: How to fill the hole?
Lotito indicates that if Oddo does in fact leave he will seek to sign right back Marco Motta for a loan deal. Motta is currently co-owned by Atalanta and Udinese and stands on the Udinese roster. With 29-year-old Damiano Zenoni regularly starting at right back for the friulani, they would be happy to unload Motta for some extra cash. Motta is only 20 years old and has the potential to power the right wing in a fashion similar to Oddo.

29 December: Rossi isn't so sure any more
Disconcerting news creeps in when Delio Rossi holds another radio interview:

Andremo avanti anche senza. Mi auguro che lui riesca a rimanere in questa squadra perchè sono convinto che abbiamo un futuro. Ma credo che trattenere un giocatore che ha espresso la propria volontà di andarsene sia controproducente. Molte volte l'orgoglio va oltre il discorso economico. Almeno, questo è il mio modo di ragionare.

"We will go forward even without [Oddo]. I predict that he will manage to stay with this team because I am convinced that we have a future. But I believe that to hang on to a player who has expressed his own wish to leave is counterproductive. Many times pride [for one's team] has surpassed monetary maters. At least, this is my way of thinking."

The prediction is the same, but there is a tone of doubt in Rossi's statement. Of course it is not only reasonable but necessary for him, as coach, to prepare for the possibility that he may have to play the second half of the season without a key player. Delio also shows his Lazialità.

1 January: There's still time...
Milan's Carlo Ancelotti is just as confident as Rossi, in the opposite direction:

C'è tempo fino al 31 gennaio. Mi aspettavo di partire senza di lui ma tra me e la società è tutto molto chiaro.

"There is time before 31 January. I expect to start [the second half of the season] without [Oddo] but between myself and the team it is all very clear."

Confidence to be sure, but are they empty words? Only Oddo and Lotito can tell us for sure...

3 January: Oddo speaks
...and one of them did. Massimo Oddo has said on Rome's Radio 6:

Penso sia inutile nascondersi e negare l’evidenza per questo vi dico che c’è un’offerta importante del Milan nei miei confronti che mette in dubbio il mio futuro alla Lazio. In ogni caso bisognerà trovare una soluzione che vada bene sia a me che alla società.

"I think it would be useless to cover up and deny the evidence for this. I say that there is an important offer from Milan on the table for me, which puts my future at Lazio in doubt. In any case we will need to find a solution that works well for both me and the team."

This is the worst news. Confirmation from Oddo himself that he expects to leave. Nevertheless it must be a difficult decision for him. Over the summer he stated that his primary reason for wanting to play at Milan was so he could play in Champions League. Halfway through the season, with the rossoneri in the 12th spot of the classifica, a move to Milan would only guarantee Massimo two Champions League matches over the next season and a half. Regardless, the money could be lure enough. Milan has promised him €7.5M over three years, compared to about €1.5M that he would receive through 2008 with Lazio. Truth be told, this would be the best time for Oddo to be a little shrewd and bargain with Lotito. The money could take him away from Lazio to an uncertain future (at least in the short run) with Milan. Now Massimo can put his own offer on the table: a contract extension and pay raise with Lazio that will get him the best of both worlds. Unless he really just prefers black and red stripes.

Pessimism and Optimism

It's a new year and that means it's time to raise this blog from the dead. Hopefully the busiest part of my academic year has passed and I can devote a little more time to this and other recreational pursuits.

As I kick off a new year here, I figure it's appropriate to stop to consider what exactly this blog is about. I will certainly admit that I've written almost exclusively about Lazio. That's in part because I know it's what my small audience wants and in part because I don't have much else to get excited about. Here's a brief rundown of all those little logos in the header:

Lazio
Forza Lazio, grande Lazio! 5th place going into the winter break despite all the Calciopoli crap. Had a convincing and sound 3-0 victory over Roma merda in the derby. I am expecting good things and hoping for Champions League.

Michigan
Football: Just laid an egg in the Rose Bowl against USC. (For those of you outside the US who find this whole American football and bowl games stuff mystifying, I send you to Wikipedia for a primer.) That makes us 1-7 in the last two games of the season over the past four years. Fantastic.
Hockey: Billy Sauer sucks. We're losing players. If we don't beat Bowling Green in our next game I will officially and permanently give up.
Basketball: Yeah right. Have sucked for a while and will continue to do so.

Cleveland sports
Browns: Suck suck suck. 4-12, nuff said.
Cavs: Suck except for LeBron.
Indians: Suck, but thank goodness it's not summer yet.

Curling
My last refuge in the sporting world. I will be genuinely excited when the Scott Tournament of Hearts rolls around. [Update: Bloody hell. Scratch that. The preliminary rounds of the Scott will only be shown on TSN, as CBC has given up those rights. I'll only get to see the semifinal and final. Sigh.]

So this all means...more Lazio! On the agenda for near future posts: translating some of the sound bites that have been flying around about the potential (but I think unlikely) transfer of Oddo to AC Milan; preview of the Dubai friendly tournament coming up next week.