Table-Turning II: Everybody Escapes

A quick followup to last week's "Turning the Tables" look at the classifica and the Calciopoli punishments. This is only slightly outdated, because it does not take into account the two anticipo matches which have actually taken place today. So pretend it was sometime last week.

Here's the exercise: predict the year-end classisfica based upon the figures at the halfway point. Usually this would be a pointless exercise: if you just double each team's points, they will remain in the exact same order. Not so when penalties are taken into consideration. The penalized squads will not wind up with twice their midseason points, but rather twice their midseason earned points minus their penalty. What does this reveal? It shows that every penalized team is far outpacing their punishments, and that everyone—even apparently struggling Reggina—should escape relegation. Lazio, Fiorentina, and Milan should all finish in spots that qualify them for Europe. Don't believe it? Here are the numbers:

After giro andata
Inter	51
Roma	42
Palermo	38
Lazio	26
Catania	26
Empoli	25
Sampdoria	24
Atalanta	24
Milan	23
Udinese	23
Torino	22
Livorno	22
Siena	21
Fiorentina	19
Cagliari	19
Chievo	17
Messina	16
Reggina	12
Parma	12
Ascoli	9

Proj. after giro ritorno
Inter	102
Roma	84
Palermo	76
Lazio	55
Catania*	55
Milan	54
Fiorentina	53
Empoli*	53
Atalanta	48
Sampdoria	48
Udinese	46
Livorno	44
Torino	44
Siena	43
Cagliari	38
Reggina	35
Chievo	34
Messina	32
Parma	24
Ascoli	18

*Catania and Empoli have each been given a 3-point benefit of the doubt, since they are one match behind.

So, here are the (possible) results. Lazio will see the least positive change in the second half, which is logical, because their penalty was smallest, but they should be able to maintain the fourth spot and earn a Champions League qualifying spot. Fiorentina and Milan should be able to push up into UEFA Cup, and Reggina—who looked nearly out of it at one point—should escape relegation. Meanwhile, over in Serie B, Juve is well poised to make it back into Serie A.

So what did Calciopoli accomplish? Nothing. But we all knew that.