Calcio to return soon

Matches could begin again as soon as Sunday
New regulations to be put into effect

After the emergency joint meeting held by the FIGC, CONI, and members of the Italian government, it has been decided that calcio will resume play soon. If not this coming weekend, play should resume the following weekend. [update: A final decision on when play will resume will be announced Wednesday.] However, stadiums around the country will be subject to stringent new security measures, and those that do not comply will be required to play home matches without fans. There will also be a new ban on selling blocks of tickets to visiting fans, to prevent organized ultras groups from attending away matches, but visiting spectators will not be banned completely.

Of greatest concern is the number of matches that will be played behind closed doors, and the disadvantage that will lend to the squads whose stadiums do not pass muster. According to Kataweb, only six of the country's stadiums meet the proposed safety guidlines:

• Roma's Stadio Olimpico (Lazio, Roma)
• Torino's Stadio Olimpico (Torino, Juve)
• Genoa's Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Samp, Genoa)
• Palermo's Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)
• Siena's Stadio Artemio Franchi (Siena)
• Messina's Stadio San Filippo (Messina)

The San Siro of Milan surprisingly does not meet the requirements even though it is a UEFA 5-star rated stadium. It, as well as the Stadio Tardini in Parma, are very close to meeting the requirements fully and should be ready for play soon. Among those criteria that are required in the proposed rules are:

• required electronic ticketing
• video surveillance in stadiums that seat 10,000+
• entries with turnstiles
• stewards provided by the club
• prescreening area
• retractable barriers

Given the fact that only 9 out of 42 clubs in Serie A and B play their home matches in qualifying stadiums, they may well wish to put off the start of play at least for another week to try to bring their home grounds up to code. Also keep in mind that one of those 9 teams, Palermo, is unlikely to be playing any home matches with fans, regardless of the fitness of their stadium. That exact ruling is still pending in the disciplinary commission of FIGC, but should be released in the next day or so.

CALCIO ON HOLD

POLICEMAN DIES IN CLASH AFTER CATANIA - PALERMO
ALL SERIE A AND SERIE B MATCHES ARE POSTPONED INDEFINITELY

After a tense Sicilian derby which had to be suspended for nearly 30 minutes during the second half due to a dense cloud of smoke over the pitch, supporters continued to set off smoke bombs and other pyrotechnics. A 38-year-old police officer was killed by one such explosion. FIGC has indefinitely put a stop to all play in Italy.

[Update 3 Feb, 5 30 PM EST] Speculation from La Repubblica:

Due turni di stop. Poi campionato a porte chiuse. Questa l'idea più verosimile per dare un seguito alla decisione presa dal commissario della Figc Luca Pancalli subito dopo la tragedia di Catania.

Two matchdays of postponement followed by the remainder of the season behind closed doors for all clubs. La Repubblica thinks this is the most likely course of action that will be taken by FIGC after their emergency meeting on Monday. This is, however, purely speculative, and the truth will not be known until FIGC, CONI, and UEFA make their final announcements.

[Update 2 Feb, 11 PM EST] And from the players' association president, Sergio Campana:

Pancalli mi ha chiamato...ed ero totalmente d'accordo ma vorrei che fosse presa seriamente in considerazione questa mia proposta, il calcio dovrebbe fermarsi un anno per far riflettere su tutti i mali che mostra.

Pancalli called me...and I was in complete agreement but I think that my proposal should be taken in serious consideration, that football should be stopped for one year to reflect upon the evils that it has shown

[2 Feb, 7 30 PM EST] Comments from FIGC commissioner Luca Pancalli:

Ho disposto lo stop di tutte le attività, il calcio in Italia si ferma. Ora basta, veramente basta. È una situazione che non riesco neanche a commentare, perdere la vita a 38 anni è incredibile; questo non è sport.

We have put a stop to all activity, football in Italy is stopped. Now this is enough, really enough. It's a situation that I can't even comment on, to lose one's life at 38 years is incredible; this is not sport.

UFFICIALE: Ciao, Massimo

It has finally come to pass. After months of rumors, arguing, haggling, and general uproar, Massimo Oddo will don the black and red stripes. The deal was finally struck on Monday night between Lotito and Galliani. The final terms were €7.75M and the full contract of Pasquale Foggia, a compromise that leans just slightly closer to Lazio's high demands than towards Milan's initial offer. Now that it's done, the only controversy remaining is whether it was a good deal. There is no clear answer, and every party to this transaction will discover both pros and cons. A breakdown of just what everyone will get out of it:

Claudio Lotito: €€€€€€
The whole affair was strictly a business deal for the Lazio president. His demands which inched ever higher showed that he was out to milk the transfer for as much cash as Milan could muster. Lotito also knew that it would be very difficult to resign Massimo when his contract was set to expire at the end of next season. Oddo would likely have left on a free transfer, with no monetary benefit to the club. Thus the tradeoff is simple: sacrifice a year-and-a-half of play from the country's best right back for nearly €8M. Oh, plus the full contract of Pasquale Foggia. What of that? As I'll explain later, he is (unfortunately for him!) probably just a pawn in the whole affair.

Delio Rossi: a puzzle
How will Oddo's absence, not to mention the addition of Jimenez from Ternana last week, change the first team lineup that has been working fairly well for Rossi? The match against Milan was an experiment, putting Behrami in the right back spot. I think this will be his permanent spot. Belleri is not up to snuff, and when Jimenez plays he will take up one of the midfield spots that Behrami would occupy otherwise. Delio is a good tactician and will be able to resolve this for certain over the next couple weeks both on the training pitch at Formello and with inevitable experiments in actual matches.

Oddo himself: Europe...for now
The first question regarding Oddo is what sort of playing time he will receive. Cafu has been starting at right back for the rossoneri, and while Massimo is certainly of higher class, the Brazilian cannot be completely benched. It will be interesting to see whether Oddo is considered as a first-half or second-half player in his first few matches. In terms of higher-level competition, Massimo gets his wishes for the moment. Milan is still in Champions League and he will probably see at least some playing time in those matches. Tutto Mercato Web reports that Oddo may see other tournament play even before the next Serie A fixture, when Milan takes on good old Roma Merda this Thursday. But these opportunities could be fleeting. Losses to Celtic or Roma are certainly possible. Then he would have to be looking toward next year. The strange fact, due to the nature of the final Calciopoli punishments, is that Lazio is in slightly better position to reach Champions League for next year (even though they just lost the 4th spot to Empoli this past Sunday). We will have to wait until next season, when everyone (hopefully) starts on level footing to see if this decision was sound.

Pasquale Foggia: uncertainty
Oh boy. I'm sure Pasquale was thrilled to hear that this deal went through. In one respect, it certainly is an ego boost, because it indicates that the rights to his contract is a valuable commodity (up to €10M by some estimations). However, practically, it means that he is just an object to be bought and sold. Foggia has seen extremely little time playing at Lazio (366 minutes over 11 appearances and only 3 starts, which occurred when the midfield was decimated by injuries and suspensions). With the addition of Jimenez, the likelihood that he will take the pitch has only diminished. It's not surprising that Lotito has announced that he will use the remainder of the mercato period to try to loan or sell Foggia. This is of little or no consequence to the performance of the club, and serves merely to increase the cash flow value of the deal. Ci scusi, Pasquale.

Table-Turning II: Everybody Escapes

A quick followup to last week's "Turning the Tables" look at the classifica and the Calciopoli punishments. This is only slightly outdated, because it does not take into account the two anticipo matches which have actually taken place today. So pretend it was sometime last week.

Here's the exercise: predict the year-end classisfica based upon the figures at the halfway point. Usually this would be a pointless exercise: if you just double each team's points, they will remain in the exact same order. Not so when penalties are taken into consideration. The penalized squads will not wind up with twice their midseason points, but rather twice their midseason earned points minus their penalty. What does this reveal? It shows that every penalized team is far outpacing their punishments, and that everyone—even apparently struggling Reggina—should escape relegation. Lazio, Fiorentina, and Milan should all finish in spots that qualify them for Europe. Don't believe it? Here are the numbers:

After giro andata
Inter	51
Roma	42
Palermo	38
Lazio	26
Catania	26
Empoli	25
Sampdoria	24
Atalanta	24
Milan	23
Udinese	23
Torino	22
Livorno	22
Siena	21
Fiorentina	19
Cagliari	19
Chievo	17
Messina	16
Reggina	12
Parma	12
Ascoli	9

Proj. after giro ritorno
Inter	102
Roma	84
Palermo	76
Lazio	55
Catania*	55
Milan	54
Fiorentina	53
Empoli*	53
Atalanta	48
Sampdoria	48
Udinese	46
Livorno	44
Torino	44
Siena	43
Cagliari	38
Reggina	35
Chievo	34
Messina	32
Parma	24
Ascoli	18

*Catania and Empoli have each been given a 3-point benefit of the doubt, since they are one match behind.

So, here are the (possible) results. Lazio will see the least positive change in the second half, which is logical, because their penalty was smallest, but they should be able to maintain the fourth spot and earn a Champions League qualifying spot. Fiorentina and Milan should be able to push up into UEFA Cup, and Reggina—who looked nearly out of it at one point—should escape relegation. Meanwhile, over in Serie B, Juve is well poised to make it back into Serie A.

So what did Calciopoli accomplish? Nothing. But we all knew that.

more review/preview

Sorry about the complete absence of posts during the week. I've been sick and had a decent load of schoolwork to keep me away from blogging. First on the agenda: the matches.

Lazio 1-1 Siena: Sbagliato


Lazio cracked late in the second half, allowing Siena to pull back even and nearly win at the Olimpico last Sunday. After Rocchi just barely got enough of a header on the ball to put Lazio in the lead, play was still going Lazio's way. Then came a critical turning point. Christian Manfredini had just been put in the match when this transpired:

Cross rasoterra di Makinwa per Manfredini, che tutto solo a tu per tu con Manninger sbaglia la facile deviazione in gol

"Low cross by Makinwa for Manfredini, who was completely by himself, one-on-one with Manninger, but he botched an easy redirect into the goal"

From that point, Siena realized that Lazio didn't have the means to put away the game. They pushed forward for the next fifteen minutes. Their offensive onslaught was too much. The biancocelesti turned away many chances, but couldn't stop them all. Siena earned one too many corners, whic Francesco Cozza was able to head past Angelo Peruzzi. That wasn't the end of Siena's attack. They went for all three points, and during recupero Mario Frick hit the post with a rocketing shot. Lazio were lucky to scrape by with a single point, after such a promising start.

Preview: Lazio - Milan

Lazio (26 pts, 4th place)
vs.
Milan (23 pts, 9th place)
20:30 CET / 2:30 PM EDT
Sunday, 21 January
Stadio Olimpico, Roma

US TV: FSC (live)

Lazio begins the giro ritorno much as they began the first half of the season. This time they will play a tough match against AC Milan at home. Their previous meeting went in favor of the rossoneri by a score of 2-1.

Except for the change of location, this match has a very similar feeling to that which surrounded their September tie. Transfer rumors regarding Massimo Oddo still abound. Claudio Lotito has again rejected Milan's latest overtures, so nothing is final. Nonetheless Gazzetta feels comfortable running headlines like "Oddo andrà via dopo Lazio-Milan." Then on Saturday came the most grievous omen: Delio Rossi has chosen to not call up Oddo for the match against Milan. This portends something greater is going on than was in the fall, since on matchday 1 Massimo started in his usual position, despite issues of the mercato.

So, Massimo Oddo may spend his last Sunday at Lazio not even wearing the maglia biancoceleste. How sad and anticlimactic. Naturally we have to wait for the magic word—UFFICIALE—next week. Until then, the rest of the squad, under the leadership of Zauri, must look past this and focus on the game. Christian Ledesma has said that if Lazio plays with the same kind of intensity that they did in the derby, they will succeed. That is certainly possible, considering Milan's latest struggles. They have not fared as well as they would like in Serie A, and despite reaching the semifinal of the Coppa Italia earlier this week, they did so only after a combined A/B squad lost 1-0 (and nearly 2-0) to Serie B bottomfeeders Arezzo.

In short, Lazio has the skills to beat Milan, especially at the Olimpico. The question is whether they will be mentally tough enough.

Probable formation:

Peruzzi
Berahmi-Siviglia-Cribari-Zauri
Mudingayi-Ledesma-Mutarelli
Mauri
Rocchi-Pandev

Prediction: Lazio 1-1 Milan. But a 2-1 win if only we can keep our cool.